A review of multiple natural hazards and risks in Germany

Although Germany is not among the most hazard-prone regions of the world, it does experience various natural hazards that have caused considerable economic and human losses in the past. Moreover, risk due to natural hazards is expected to increase in several regions of Germany if efficient risk management is not able to accommodate global changes. The most important natural hazards, in terms of past human and economic damage they caused, are storms, floods, extreme temperatures and earthquakes. They all show a pronounced spatial and temporal variability. In the present article, a review of these natural hazards, associated risks and their management in Germany is provided. This review reveals that event and risk analyses, as well as risk management, predominantly focus on one single hazard, generally not considering the cascading and conjoint effects in a full multi-hazard and risks approach. However, risk management would need integrated multi-risk analyses to identify, understand, quantify and compare different natural hazards and their impacts, as well as their interactions.     

Coping with floods in the city of Dresden,Germany

During August 2002 and again in March 2005 as well as in April 2006 the city of Dresden was hit by floods. The flood in 2002 was an extreme event, only comparable to flooding in 1862 and 1890 in Dresden. The flood discharge in 2006 was the second highest discharge since 1940 at the Dresden gauge although its return period was only about 15 years. This special situation enables a comparison of the preparedness of authorities and households in the flood endangered city of Dresden in 2002 after a long period of relatively low flood discharges and in 2005/2006 just a few years after a severe flood event. Before August 2002, the flood risk awareness and flood preparedness of authorities and households in Dresden was low. The inundation channels and the Elbe riverbed had not been maintained well. Just 13% of the households had undertaken building precautionary measures. The severe flood situation as well as the low flood preparedness led to tremendous damage, e.g., losses to residential buildings amounted to 304 million €. After 2002, the municipal authorities in Dresden developed a new flood management concept and many households were motivated to undertake precautionary measures. Building precautionary measures had been actually undertaken by 67% of the households before the floods in 2005 and 2006. Flood damage was significantly lower, due to the less severe flood situations and the much better preparedness. It is an important challenge for the future to keep preparedness at a high level also without recurrent flood experiences.     

Current and future impacts of ultraviolet radiation on the terrestrial carbon balance

One of the most documented effects of human activity on our environment is the reduction of stratospheric ozone resulting in an increase of biologically harmful ultraviolet (UV) radiation. In a less predictable manner, UV radiation incident at the surface of the earth is expected to be further modified in the future as a result of altered cloud condition, atmospheric aerosol concentration, and snow cover. Although UV radiation comprises only a small fraction of the total solar radiation that is incident at the earth’s surface, it has the greatest energy per unit wavelength and, thus, the greatest potential to damage the biosphere. Recent investigations have highlighted numerous ways that UV radiation could potentially affect a variety of ecological processes, including nutrient cycling and the terrestrial carbon cycle. The objectives of the following literature review are to summarize and synthesize the available information relevant to the effects of UV radiation and other climate change factors on the terrestrial carbon balance in an effort to highlight current gaps in knowledge and future research directions for UV radiation research.     

The 1986 Kermadec earthquake and its relation to plate segmentation

To evaluate the tectonic significance of the October 20, 1986 Kermadec earthquake (M _w =7.7), we performed a comprehensive analysis of source parameters using surface waves, body waves, and relocated aftershocks. Amplitude and phase spectra from up to 93 Rayleigh waves were inverted for centroid time, depth, and moment tensor in a two-step algorithm. In some of the inversions, the time function was parameterized to include information from the body-wave time function. The resulting source parameters were stable with respect to variations in the velocity and attenuation models assumed, the parameterization of the time function, and the set of Rayleigh waves included. The surface wave focal mechanism derived (=275°, =61°, =156°) is an oblique-compressional mechanism that is not easy to interpret in terms of subduction tectonics. A seismic moment of 4.5×10²⁰ N-m, a centroid depth of 45±5 km, and a centroid time of 13±3 s were obtained. Directivity was not resolvable from the surface waves. The short source duration is in significant contrast to many large earthquakes.We performed a simultaneous inversion ofP andSH body waves for focal mechanism and time function. The focal mechanism agreed roughly with the surface wave mechanism. Multiple focal mechanisms remain a possibility, but could not be resolved. The body waves indicate a short duration of slip (15 to 20 s), with secondary moment release 60s later. Seismically radiated energy was computed from the body-wave source spectrum. The stress drop computed from the seismic energy is about 30 bars. Sixty aftershocks that occurred within three months of the mainshock were relocated using the method of Joint Hypocentral Determination (JHD). Most of the aftershocks have underthrusting focal mechanisms and appear to represent triggered slip on the main thrust interface. The depth, relatively high stress drop, short duration of slip, and paucity of true aftershocks are consistent with intraplate faulting within the downgoing plate. Although it is not clear on which nodal plane slip occurred, several factors favor the roughly E-W trending plane. The event occurred near a major segmentation in the downgoing plate at depth, near a bend in the trench, and near a right-lateral offset of the volcanic are by 80 km along an E-W direction. Also, all events in the region from 1977 to 1991 with CMT focal mechanisms similar to that of the Mainshock occurred near the mainshock epicenter, rather than forming an elongate zone parallel to the trench as did the aftershock activity. We interpret this event as part of the process of segmentation or tearing of the subducting slab. This segmentation appears to be related to the subduction of the Louisville Ridge, which may act as an obstacle to subduction through its buoyancy.     

Adaptive model of plankton dynamics for the North Atlantic

Plankton ecosystems in the North Atlantic display strong regional and interannual variability in productivity and trophic structure, which cannot be captured by simple plankton models. Additional compartments subdividing functional groups can increase predictive power, but the high number of parameters tends to compromise portability and robustness of model predictions. An alternative strategy is to use property state variables, such as cell size, normally considered constant parameters in ecosystem models, to define the structure of functional groups in terms of both behaviour and response to physical forcing. This strategy may allow us to simulate realistically regional and temporal differences among plankton communities while keeping model complexity at a minimum.We fit a model of plankton and DOM dynamics globally and individually to observed climatologies at three diverse locations in the North Atlantic. Introducing additional property state variables is shown to improve the model fit both locally and globally, make the model more portable, and help identify model deficiencies. The zooplankton formulation exerts strong control on model performance. Our results suggest that the current paradigm on zooplankton allometric functional relationships might be at odds with observed plankton dynamics. Our parameter estimation resulted in more realistic estimates of parameters important for primary production than previous data assimilation studies.Property state variables generate complex emergent functional relationships, and might be used like tracers to differentiate between locally produced and advected biomass. The model results suggest that the observed temperature dependence of heterotrophic growth efficiency [Rivkin, R.B., Legendre, L., 2001. Biogenic carbon cycling in the upper ocean: effects of microbial respiration. Science 291 (5512) 2398-2400] could be an emergent relation due to intercorrelations among temperature, nutrient concentration and growth efficiency. A major advantage of using property state variables is that no additional parameters are required, such that differences in model performance can be directly related to model structure rather than parameter tuning.     

Temporary-creep and post-creep properties of aquaculture netting materials

Creep in materials and structures may lead to increasing strains, permanent deformations, change in mechanical properties and rupture at loads significantly smaller than the breaking strength. In this paper, we present data on temporary-creep properties, recovery of strain post creep and post-creep tensile properties of a selection of Raschel knitted netting materials. Creep strain in wet netting materials subjected to a creep target load of 10–90% of average force at break for 30 min varied from 1.6% to 3.5%. The rate of creep decreased with time and decreased target load. The recovery of strain post creep was relatively fast and approximately half of the creep strain was elastic. Post-creep tensile testing showed that the length and force at break were not significantly affected by the creep load history. However, due to permanent deformations of the specimens from the creep test, the nominal breaking strain decreased and the stiffness increased with increased creep target load.